Don't Go All In: A Pragmatic Guide to Emerging Technologies

Second Life. Google Glass. Papervision. Augmented Reality. Virtual Reality. Metaverse. Crypto. Blockchain. NFTs. AI. ChatGPT.

"I'm going all in."

We've heard this refrain with every new technology wave. And every time, the same pattern plays out.

The Technology Hype Cycle

Over the years, numerous "game-changing" technologies and innovative breakthroughs have been developed, paving the way for further advancements. It's easy to get caught up in the hype when something new and exciting is introduced and grabs the headlines.

However, it's crucial to exercise caution and carefully evaluate the potential benefits and drawbacks before committing to a new technology.

The Gold Rush Mentality

Just like prospectors would rush to stake their claim and mine for gold, early adopters of new technologies often rush to be the first to:

• Invest
• Develop
• Utilize the technology to gain a competitive advantage

However, just like the gold rush, not everyone who jumps on the bandwagon will succeed, and there may be risks and challenges associated with the adoption of new technology.

Don't let this stop you investing—just invest wisely and understand the investment.

The Metaverse: A Case Study in Hype

The Metaverse emerged on the scene long after the Second Life craze, which coincided with the seemingly rapid adoption of Virtual Reality.

The Promise

The Metaverse promised limitless revenue opportunities.

The Reality

As quickly as the hype began, it has taken a backseat to later headlines of Machine Learning and AI technologies.

This is not to suggest that Virtual Reality and the Metaverse have no value—they can be tremendously beneficial in:

• Medical industry (surgical training, therapy)
• Engineering fields (3D modeling, prototyping)
• Specialized training simulations

However, as a social landscape, one may question whether the hype is truly justified.

Cryptocurrency: Gains, Losses, and Lessons

Cryptocurrency has resulted in both significant gains and losses.

I myself was somewhat caught up in the hype, and I recognize the appeal of a more democratic and transparent financial system.

The Challenge

However, the high volatility and lack of regulation surrounding cryptocurrencies leave them in an uncertain position.

The Approach

While I am willing to take some risks in investing a small amount, I am more interested in the underlying technology, which I will also try and dissect.

Blockchain: Technology vs. Hype

Blockchain technology offers numerous opportunities, but are the derivative applications truly justified?

NFTs: The Latest Gold Rush

NFTs, which utilize blockchain technology, have been making headlines and have garnered significant investments from both artists and the technology industry.

This has created a gold rush of sorts, with:

• Many people making substantial wealth
• Others left holding NFTs that may not hold much value

Where NFTs Actually Make Sense

While I do not necessarily believe that investing in NFTs for the sole purpose of ownership is worthwhile, I do see value in using them to:

• Track ownership and ensure authenticity
• Protect copyright
• Act as a "ticket" to gain access to exclusive opportunities

Real-world applications:

• Digital rights management for artists
• Proof of authenticity for physical goods
• Access tokens for exclusive content or communities
• Supply chain verification

The Pattern: Subset Value in Overhyped Technologies

Although the larger vision of a technology may seem lacking, there are often subset features that can still be valuable.

Example: Public/Private Key Encryption

We have integrated public/private key encryption into many applications and it is proving to be quite powerful—even if the original vision for the technology falls short.

Example: Blockchain vs. Databases

While blockchain networks may have been hyped up, databases often suffice for many use cases.

When blockchain makes sense:

• Decentralized trust is required
• Multiple parties need to verify transactions
• Immutability is critical

When databases are better:

• Centralized control is acceptable
• Performance matters more than decentralization
• Lower costs are a priority

AI: The Current Headline

The most recent headlines in technology revolve around:

• Artificial Intelligence
• Machine Learning
• Neural Networks
• ChatGPT

These technologies are currently seeing significant investments, but businesses must consider when it makes sense to adopt them in their day-to-day operations.

The Cost Reality

Building your own AI network can be expensive and difficult to justify without:

• A valid use case
• Access to massive amounts of data
• Clear ROI expectations

Collecting data and training the model can lead to significant expenses.

The Pragmatic Approach

However, integrating open-source tools into your business could be very powerful.

Example: Conversational Data Collection

For instance, replacing predefined surveys with ChatGPT conversational models could:

• Capture unexpected and more valuable data
• Provide more natural user experiences
• Uncover insights you didn't know to ask about

Collecting data on customer inquiries could provide businesses with:

• Valuable insights into customer needs
• Information to inform business decisions
• Data to help improve products and services

The Framework: Evaluating New Technologies

Before adopting or investing in any new and emerging technology, ask yourself:

1. Will it benefit your business?

• Does it solve a real problem?
• Is the ROI clear and measurable?
• Can you afford the investment?

2. Will it benefit your customers?

• Does it improve their experience?
• Does it solve their pain points?
• Are they asking for this?

3. Will it pave the way for future technologies?

• Are you building capability for tomorrow?
• Is this infrastructure that will compound?
• Does it position you for the next wave?

Don't Go "All In"—Go Strategic

It's important not to go "all in" on a technology but instead:

Extract the Value

Try to understand which parts of the technology may be beneficial.

Validate the ROI

Determine whether the return on investment is valid.

Start Small

Experiment with low-stakes implementations before betting the company.

Learn Fast

Iterate quickly to understand what works and what doesn't.

Practical Applications Worth Exploring

As the growth of the technologies discussed in this article continues, there will be many new toys to play with.

Play wisely.

AI/ML Applications That Make Sense Today

• Customer support automation (chatbots, ticket routing)
• Content generation (marketing copy, documentation)
• Data analysis (pattern recognition, forecasting)
• Code assistance (GitHub Copilot, code review)

Blockchain Applications That Make Sense Today

• Supply chain verification (authenticity, provenance)
• Digital rights management (content licensing)
• Identity verification (decentralized credentials)

AR/VR Applications That Make Sense Today

• Training simulations (safety, medical, technical)
• 3D product visualization (e-commerce, real estate)
• Remote collaboration (engineering, design review)

The Pattern Across All Hype Cycles

Every technology follows the same arc:

1. Innovation Trigger

New technology introduced with bold promises.

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations

Media hype, massive investment, "revolutionary" claims.

3. Trough of Disillusionment

Reality sets in, many fail, skepticism grows.

4. Slope of Enlightenment

Real use cases emerge, practical applications proven.

5. Plateau of Productivity

Mainstream adoption for valid use cases.

The key is knowing where you are in the cycle.

What We've Learned

Technologies That Found Their Place

• Virtual Reality: Not the social platform promised, but invaluable for training
• Blockchain: Not the currency revolution, but useful for specific trust problems
• AI: Not artificial general intelligence (yet), but powerful for pattern recognition

Technologies Still Finding Their Way

• Metaverse: Still searching for the killer app
• NFTs: Speculation bubble, but copyright/authenticity use cases emerging
• Quantum Computing: Promising, but practical applications years away

My Challenge to You

Do let me know about any of the fun and interesting applications you are investigating.

I am always interested in:

• Practical applications of new technologies
• How you are benefiting from adoption in your industry
• What worked and what didn't

Conclusion

The lesson from every technology hype cycle is the same:

The technology is rarely as revolutionary as promised, but also rarely as useless as the skeptics claim.

The value is in the thoughtful, strategic extraction of what actually works for your specific context.

Don't go all in.

Go strategic.

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Need help separating hype from value in emerging technologies? At Devs For Code, we help businesses evaluate new technologies through the lens of practical ROI and strategic fit—not hype. Let's discuss what actually makes sense for your business.